Projected future impact of HPV vaccination and primary HPV screening on cervical cancer rates from 2017- 2035: Example from Australia

Many countries are transitioning to HPV screening, which trials have predicted will increase CIN2/3 detection, however population level transitional impacts are poorly understood. This study evaluated the effects of switching to a longer-interval HPV screening in Australia. A model was developed using HPV vaccination, transmission, natural history and cervical screening  to simulate the planned transition of screening. Results of the simulation shows that transient increases of CIN2/3 detection and invasive cervical cancer rates are predicted in the first 2-3 years. However by 2035, CIN2.3 and invasive cervical cancer rates are predicted to fall by 40-44% and 42-51% respectively, compared to 2017 rates. Although cervical cancer mortality rates are predicted to remain the same for the next few years, they will decline by 34-45% by 2034. This study shows that switching to primary HPV screening in Australia is expected to prevent 2006 cases of invasive cervical cancer and save 587 lives. Read the full article